J.I.T.

    In September 1976, Soviet Air Defense Command pilot, Lieutenant Viktor Belenko, flew his highly classified MiG 25 fighter jet to Japan, landed at an American Air Force Base, defected, and asked for asylum. Part of his acclimation to American culture was to allow him to travel alone randomly throughout the United States.  One of the observations he made was everywhere he went, the grocery stores were full of fresh, healthy produce.  Not rotting and unappetizing as he had experienced in his native country.  He was certain American officials had predicted his moves, gone ahead of him and staged the “fake” displays just for his benefit.

Every few days we make a trip to the local grocery store.  Under normal circumstances we make our purchases and fill our shopping lists with nary a thought about how all those items came to be so plentifully available for our needs.  We want them and there they are!  Simple as that.  Unbeknownst to most of us, our grocer’s shelves are filled using a technology known as “Just In Time” inventory management.  Commonly referred to in the business as, “J.I.T.”  

Excess inventory is a waste of company resources, (translated: costs go up), while too little inventory is damaging to customer confidence.  “They NEVER have what I want!” 

To maintain that delicate balance of inventory, J.I.T. is maintained with a set of precise and delicate shipping schedules from a variety of vendors to keep our stores stocked so we consumers always get what we want.  At the same time, the razor-thin profit margin is protected by this oh-so-fragile system we have taken for granted.

So let's pretend for a moment there is a glitch in the system.  A major cataclysmic event notwithstanding, say an ice storm in a major city which serves our area.  Highways are closed, trucks can’t get to the distribution points and our stores don’t get their inventory.  Most retailers know if their J.I.T. schedule is interrupted, their shelves would empty in 3 to 5 days. 

Just pretend you go to the store and notice some bare shelves.  Your curiosity kicks in and you ask an employee what’s going on.  “Oh our trucks can’t get here due to the ice storm and we don’t know when we’ll get more supplies!  It may be two weeks or more.”

You, being a rational person decide stocking up right now would be a very good idea.  That is IF there’s anything left to stock up on!  As soon as word gets around, panic buying soon follows!

Past experiences show during imminent hurricanes, or major snowstorms, the stores clear out within 3 to 4 hours. Now factor in an earthquake in your region and let your imagination run.  

In case you were wondering, there are no local, government warehouses stocked with emergency supplies set aside for our use during such an event. Even the food banks are dependent on donations from various sources, both public and private, but they are not equipped to provide for the needs of the general populace in an emergency.  The only sure source of feeding your family is what you have on hand.  If the J.I.T. infrastructure failed, how long before you are in deep trouble? 

The best thing you can do is begin now by setting aside some of the items your family uses anyway.  Watch the sales.  “Buy one get one” or BOGO sales are great for setting aside extra groceries.  One “coupon” person emailed me several months ago and let me know she saved over $8,000.00 on their grocery bill over a year's time by “coupon-ing”, and a by-product  was she accumulated a significant amount of groceries to be used in an emergency.  Whichever method you choose to build your food supply, just do it!  (Thanks Nike!)  Before long you will have enough extra that if there indeed is an interruption in the supply chain, it will have minimal effect on you and your family.

Christmas Treasure

    Now that the winter holidays and the mystery and excitement of Christmas gift giving is behind us, it’s time to settle into the New Year and get serious about all those new “resolutions” for which we always have such great intentions.  I heard once that we judge ourselves by our intentions, but we rate others by their actions.  If that’s the case, we always give ourselves high marks, even if we don’t keep those New Year’s resolutions.

    As for the gifts, I find it humorous, prefered and altogether fitting to receive prepper-type gifts for Christmas.  Back in the day when .22 ammo was less expensive, we routinely exchanged bricks of .22 shells for stocking stuffers.  Even so, it was almost considered ho-hum.  Then during the time when .22 ammo was completely unavailable, it lost the “ho-hum” factor and was highly prized. Although ammo is more readily available now than in the recent past, I don’t believe we had one single box of ammo given as a gift this year in our home.  There was, however,no shortage of paracord, solar collectors, solar-powered lights, multi-tools, knives, LED flashlights and all other kinds of prepper-type stuff.  Even a case of Mountain House freeze-dried food was gifted to one family member.  So, for future reference, if you’re thinking of putting together a kit, find out what item your loved one is missing and fill the need.  Can’t go wrong with prepper gear.

    Now for those New Year’s resolutions, and I can’t find anyone who still makes them anymore, so maybe I’m way out of vogue on this one.  But if you’ve been thinking about building a kit, just in case, now’s your chance.  Start small, but get a tote, cardboard box or a backpack and put in a few things, just in case.  You can park it inside your closet, beside your front door, or even in your car’s trunk.  Get a list of items and one by one, add to your kit.  If you can’t find a list, email me and I’ll send you one.  Just get started.  If you drive one vehicle and your mate drives another, then get two backpacks.  Here’s a hint:  lapolicegear.com sells a really nice 3-day backpack for $42.99.  It makes a great starter kit.  If you’d rather keep things at home, pick up a nice large tote at your local hardware store and fill it with your necessities.  That snap-on lid will keep vermin at bay.  The point is:  Do something!  As time goes on and you accumulate supplies and gear, you’ll thank me.  Not only that, your kit will grow and I predict this time next year, you’ll outgrow your backpack, or you’ll need two totes. And that’s a good thing.

Earthquake Wakeup

Last week’s 7.0 earthquake in Anchorage, Alaska, should serve as a wake-up call.  Those of us living on Oregon’s Coast know about the Cascadia Subduction Zone and the threat posed by it.  Two tectonic plates, the Juan de Fuca and the Continental Plate are locked in a Sumo match about 60 to 90 miles off the coast of Vancouver Island, Washington, Oregon, and northern California.  The experts say when those two plates finally slip, we will see an earthquake of the likes not seen in recent times.  Predictions of 9.0 or better are common when the seismologists speak of the anticipated Cascadia quake.

Friends in the Anchorage area sent photos of their workshop.  It looked like a hardware store dumped a truckload of merchandise on the floor.  Other news photos show busted roads, store goods scattered and videos of teeth-rattling action.  Consider the Anchorage quake registered 7.0 on the Richter scale and the amount of damage experienced was significant.

The most recent Cascadia quake occurred on January 26, 1700.  There were no white men living in the Northwest at that time, therefore no one kept written records. There was, however an orphan tsunami in Japan which wiped out several fishing villages.  The Japanese called it an orphan tsunami as there was no earthquake, hence no warning preceding the damage.  Experts surmised an earthquake occurred elsewhere on the planet. Later they connected the dots and coupled with First-Nations lore handed down from one generation to the next, concluded the two were connected.

Core samples taken from estuaries up and down the Pacific Northwest coast tell a story of multiple earthquakes over the past 10,000 years.  Over that period of time, the Pacific Northwest has experienced 41 subduction zone earthquakes.  Divide 10,000 by 41 and the answer is 243.  Two hundred forty-three years average between subduction zone earthquakes.  With the most recent in January 1700, we’re due.  Overdue in fact!  We are now nearly 319 years into a 243-year cycle.

According to Kathryn Schulz writing for New Yorker Magazine, “Twenty-two per cent of Oregon’s coastal population is sixty-five or older. Twenty-nine per cent of the state’s population is disabled, and that figure rises in many coastal counties.”

Local authorities are quoted “We can’t save them, I’m not going to sugarcoat it and say, ‘Oh, yeah, we’ll go around and check on the elderly.’ No. We won’t.” Nor will anyone save the tourists. Washington State Park properties within the inundation zone see an average of seventeen thousand and twenty-nine guests a day. Oregon authorities estimate up to a hundred and fifty thousand people visit Oregon’s beaches on summer weekends. “Most of them won’t have a clue as to how to evacuate, and the beaches are the hardest place to evacuate from.”

Schulz continues, “There are estimates that in the I-5 corridor it will take between one and three months after the earthquake to restore electricity, a month to a year to restore drinking water and sewer service, six months to a year to restore major highways, and eighteen months to restore health-care facilities. On the coast, those numbers go up. Whoever chooses or has no choice but to stay there will spend three to six months without electricity, one to three years without drinking water and sewage systems, and three or more years without hospitals. Those estimates do not apply to the tsunami-inundation zone, which will remain all but uninhabitable for years.”

I never write to cause concern or fear, but to motivate folks to awareness and action.  If a shocking analysis brings action, so be it.

Rechargeables

    The evolution of technology has brought us from the age of the gas-pumping Coleman lantern, to the battery-powered emergency lights to rechargeables to solar powered gadgets.  Companies like Goal Zero have raised the bar for emergency lighting when the grid is breached. 

Rechargeables are one of my favorites because there are no worries about keeping fresh batteries on hand.  Still there is a weakness. 

I have a Black and Decker “Storm Station”.  The rechargeable battery powers emergency lighting and even has a built-in inverter to provide 110 volt AC for small appliances (for a short time).  The instructions said to plug it in, and when the need arises, you’ve got emergency power, light, even a built in AM/FM radio.  Now to be fair, the radio runs off D cell batteries.  The rest of the unit is powered by a rechargeable 12 volt battery.  The problem is this;  you plug it in and leave it for say, three or four years.  Come time to use it, the battery is toast.  The reason you bought it was to light your unlighted abode.  And you’re still in the dark.  Fortunately the problem is an easy fix.  You take the unit apart, get the battery number, match it to one on Amazon and bingo, problem solved. Trouble is, that doesn’t help you in mid-disaster.

Here’s what I propose.  Plug in your rechargeable unit.  Once fully charged, unplug it.  After that, plug it in for a day or two at a time every 30 days.  That will keep it topped off without burning out the battery.  Then when the grid goes down, you’re golden.  

I even rescued a new-looking rechargeable lantern from a trash can once, took it home, ordered a new battery and voila, it worked like new.  Someone had bought it, plugged it in for a couple of years and tossed it when they thought it was somehow defective. 

Earlier I mentioned Goal Zero.  If you’re interested in buying your prepper a great, high quality gift, check out Goal Zero.  From a solar-powered “crush light” ($19.95) to a 3000 watt portable power station, the Goal Zero Yeti is capable for powering up your refrigerator (for a limited time) and sells for a mere $2,399.99.  Powered by A/C or solar panel, the rechargeable battery is rated at 3075 watt hours of storage and has no fewer than ten outlets including USB, 12-volt and 110 volt plug-ins,  Goal Zero also offers a wide range of solar panels, both portable and stationary.  There is a great selection of lighting items along with high-quality power banks and phone chargers.  I have found their products to be well thought out and nicely designed for the prepper/survivalist. 

The holiday season is upon us and between slick roads, winter weather and increased fire hazards in the home, it is your responsibility to stay safe and yet be prepared for any disaster.  Now is a great time to check your battery supply and make sure your rechargeables are functioning.

Paradise Lost

    An entire city in northern California has been evacuated because of wildfire.  The City of Paradise, population 27,000, has been leveled by a late season fire.  Churches, hospital, shopping mall, and hundreds of homes are flattened by flames.  Six thousand firefighters and support personnel are on the scene while residents were evacuated to nearby cities and shelters.  Named the Camp Fire, because of the originating location, no one really knows how the fire started, and has (at this writing) covered nearly 110,000 acres in the last three days. 

    Dozens of heartbreaking videos of people racing to safety are posted on social media, documenting their panicked flight to get families out of harm's way.  One survivor reported he only had time to grab his Bible and get out of his home.  Others offer a tear-filled commentary on the damage and loss.  At this time, 29 deaths are recorded in the northern California fire.

    In February 2017, 120,000 people were evacuated from nearby the Oroville area when the Oroville Dam suffered a structural issue, threatening collapse.  During the Oroville evacuation, thousands were forced to simply leave with no destination in mind.  The term for that person is “refugee”.  Others took time to make hotel reservations while yet others went to friends and relatives.  Some with RVs simply found a place out of danger and set up camp until the all-clear was given.

    This is a textbook example of the necessity of being prepared.  If your family has a plan in place, a bag prepared and a destination, then an orderly evacuation can take place in very little time and you’re way ahead of the crowds.  (And way less stress on the marriage, I might add.)   Keep your panic-level down as your kids take their cues from their parents.  When you freak out, they get panicked as well.  If you’re cool, calm and collected (as much as you can be) then your offspring will manage better overall.

    I’m hearing on the news this fire was consuming, in extreme cases, one acre per second.  That’s sixty acres per minute! If a fire is moving that quickly, there is no time for second-guessing, indecision or trying to decide whether to take the blue shirt or the brown shirt.  Some of those decisions become very minor in importance when faced with a level three evacuation.

    If you’re not living in the area of any disaster right at the moment, I want to challenge you to do three things:

1. Say a prayer of thanks for keeping your family safe from some kind of major disaster.
2. Say a prayer for those who have been endangered, displaced or suffered loss from wildfire.
3. Gather your family around the table with a blank sheet of paper and make a plan.  A plan that may save their lives should, heaven forbid, any calamity come your way.

    If you have no idea where to begin, send me an email and I will give you some resources to make the first steps.  But first, check out my blog at www.disasterprepdave.blogspot.com.

Jump Starting Your Food Supply

    Whenever a person thinks of prepping, the first thing to come to mind is food.  What to store, how much to store, how to store, and which store to go to?  There are all kinds of food packages you can purchase.  You can get a year’s supply of dehydrated or freeze-dried fare for $4,000 (Costco) or a 72 hour kit for one person at WalMart for $64.00.

    This week I’m going to give you a list of items you can buy at your local grocery store, things you would probably have on hand anyway.  The dehydrated kits you buy generally tout a 25-year shelf life.  So the normal things you purchase, should be rotated out every few months or so.  One rule of thumb when it comes to storing up food;  buy food your body is accustomed to eating!  During a disaster, your system will be on overload anyway, and there is no benefit to introducing a whole new menu to your gastric system in a time of crisis.  

    Some people lay in backpacking freeze-dried food to be eaten when the time comes.  That is all well and good, unless you have never tried those entrees and you experience a revolt of sorts when you’re already stressed out anyway.  Store up food to which your body is already accustomed!  Or at least you know the kids will eat.

Here’s the beginning of a shopping list:  (The second half will come next week.)

1.  20 lbs of rice.  Rice seems pretty boring, but it is filling, nutritious and adaptable to a wide variety of entrees.

2.  20 lbs of pinto beans.  Beans are also a valuable part of every storage plan.  Combined with rice they fulfill a protein need in your menu.

3.  20 cans of vegetables.  Green beans, peas, corn and canned tomatoes are a good start.  Buy what you already eat and enjoy.

4.  20 cans of fruit.  Peaches, pears, pineapple, fruit cocktail, all to your taste.  

5.  20 cans of meat.  Chicken, tuna, shrimp, salmon, vienna sausages, beef stew and don’t forget Spam.  Those square cans fit really well on the shelf and if it’s fried, you can make the kids believe it is “camping bacon.”  It worked for my kids anyway.  I even recently found some canned roast beef.

6.  4 lbs of oats.  A warm bowl of oatmeal can be a welcome meal any time of day.  Topped with some canned fruit, it makes a refreshing treat.

7. 2 (or more) large jars of peanut butter.  A good source of protein and surprisingly filling.  Tastes good too!

8.  Pick up a supply of powdered drink mix.  Tang, Crystal Light or similar product.  Make sure it’s loaded with vitamin C.

9.  5 lbs of powdered milk.  It’s great protein and is loaded with other nutrients.  It’s filling and can be used on that oatmeal as well.

10.  5 lbs of salt.  Salt is an essential for survival as well as a food enhancer.  Our bodies need salt to survive.

    You don’t need to fill this shopping list all at once.  Watch for sales.  Pay attention to the “buy one, get one” promotions.  Use coupons.  One reader told me she saved several thousand dollars in just one year by using coupons.  At the same time she built a substantial pantry for use in a disaster. 

    As always, send your comments and questions to disasterprep.dave@gmail.com.  Dave Robinson is the author of “Disaster Prep For The Rest Of Us,” available on Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble, and other online booksellers.

Jump Starting Your Food Supply

    Whenever a person thinks of prepping, the first thing to come to mind is food.  What to store, how much to store, how to store, and which store to go to?  There are all kinds of food packages you can purchase.  You can get a year’s supply of dehydrated or freeze-dried fare for $4,000 (Costco) or a 72 hour kit for one person at WalMart for $64.00.

    This week I’m going to give you a list of items you can buy at your local grocery store, things you would probably have on hand anyway.  The dehydrated kits you buy generally tout a 25-year shelf life.  So the normal things you purchase, should be rotated out every few months or so.  One rule of thumb when it comes to storing up food;  buy food your body is accustomed to eating!  During a disaster, your system will be on overload anyway, and there is no benefit to introducing a whole new menu to your gastric system in a time of crisis.  

    Some people lay in backpacking freeze-dried food to be eaten when the time comes.  That is all well and good, unless you have never tried those entrees and you experience a revolt of sorts when you’re already stressed out anyway.  Store up food to which your body is already accustomed!  Or at least you know the kids will eat.

Here’s the beginning of a shopping list:  (The second half will come next week.)

1.  20 lbs of rice.  Rice seems pretty boring, but it is filling, nutritious and adaptable to a wide variety of entrees.

2.  20 lbs of pinto beans.  Beans are also a valuable part of every storage plan.  Combined with rice they fulfill a protein need in your menu.

3.  20 cans of vegetables.  Green beans, peas, corn and canned tomatoes are a good start.  Buy what you already eat and enjoy.

4.  20 cans of fruit.  Peaches, pears, pineapple, fruit cocktail, all to your taste.  

5.  20 cans of meat.  Chicken, tuna, shrimp, salmon, vienna sausages, beef stew and don’t forget Spam.  Those square cans fit really well on the shelf and if it’s fried, you can make the kids believe it is “camping bacon.”  It worked for my kids anyway.  I even recently found some canned roast beef.

6.  4 lbs of oats.  A warm bowl of oatmeal can be a welcome meal any time of day.  Topped with some canned fruit, it makes a refreshing treat.

7. 2 (or more) large jars of peanut butter.  A good source of protein and surprisingly filling.  Tastes good too!

8.  Pick up a supply of powdered drink mix.  Tang, Crystal Light or similar product.  Make sure it’s loaded with vitamin C.

9.  5 lbs of powdered milk.  It’s great protein and is loaded with other nutrients.  It’s filling and can be used on that oatmeal as well.

10.  5 lbs of salt.  Salt is an essential for survival as well as a food enhancer.  Our bodies need salt to survive.

    You don’t need to fill this shopping list all at once.  Watch for sales.  Pay attention to the “buy one, get one” promotions.  Use coupons.  One reader told me she saved several thousand dollars in just one year by using coupons.  At the same time she built a substantial pantry for use in a disaster. 

    As always, send your comments and questions to disasterprep.dave@gmail.com.   Dave Robinson is the author of “Disaster Prep For The Rest Of Us,” available on Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble, and other online booksellers.